2010 12 brand sales accounted for the air conditioning
air-year monthly growth in total sales
CIC Securities Research Institute, Yuan Haoran
2010 12 sales of 7.59 million air-conditioning units, a substantial increase of 51% year on year. Benefit from the increase in extreme weather this winter, strong air conditioner sales, air conditioner sales in December 2010 continued the momentum of high growth, high single month sales record over the same period. December 2010 domestic sales 4.16 million units in the high base last year, the year still achieved growth of 42.7%; export 3.43 million units, a substantial increase of 62.5%. Sub-brand of view, December 2010 Gree, Midea's total sales were 235 million and 220 million units, up respectively 56.7% and 57.1%, have higher growth, market share was 31% and 29 %, 60% of the total market share of the two oligarchs. In contrast, air-conditioning more obvious advantages of leading enterprises in the off-season. Thus, together, we are optimistic about the prospects for air conditioning industry.
2010 are to maintain strong export growth during the year
on the 2010 full year, sales of air conditioners in 2010, the total export 95.21 million units, up 44.8%. Among them, the domestic sales of 51,320,000 units, export 43.89 million units, up 36.7% and 55.7%, the export has maintained relatively strong growth.
the domestic market first broke 50 million units sold mark. First half of 2010 the rapid growth in air conditioning sales. After the March 2010 sales grew more than 20% are maintained. August 2010 season, hit a 80% year on year growth. The second half of October 2010, the off-season conditioning sales are still hot under the rebate, an increase of more than 50% to maintain growth. Air conditioning sales continued to show strong momentum. After nearly a year in real estate after the policy change, close to the best of bad factors, real estate sales has begun to show more stable trend. Meanwhile, 6 million units this year, construction of affordable housing, part of the first half of 2010 real estate hedge the regulation of sales in 2011 lagged effect of air conditioning. 2011, 10 million investment in affordable housing units over the market is expected to make up for real estate sales by the policy of suppression. Over time, the future price trends regardless of how the volume will gradually enlarge. Taking into account the second half of 2010, strong sales of air conditioners, also shows that air-conditioning sales by real estate limited the negative impact of regulation and control policies.
domestic growth in the future to promote the air-conditioning factors include: continued growth in income will continue to promote the air-conditioning consumption, continue to enhance the level of urbanization, third and fourth level contains the home appliance market consumption potential.
incomes continue to grow will continue to promote the air-conditioning consumption. China's per capita income has exceeded $ 3,000 mark, compared to foreign home appliance consumption, ownership of air-conditioning appliance ownership especially in rural areas is still very low. 2011 is the Low-income residents in the future, as per capita income continued to increase, consumer appliances will drive the popularity of future upgrades. Significantly upgrade the urban market consumption, energy saving, comfortable and beautiful proportion of high-end products gradually increased popularity of urban air has entered the first update of the future demand will be robust growth update.
expected to continue to enhance the level of urbanization, institutional changes to promote the deepening of urbanization, and promote the consumption level of urban increase of migrant workers appliances. China's urbanization rate is currently 46% certain China's urban population, also contains a large number of migrant peasant workers (including family members of about 1.7 million people). Although the population reside in cities, but living is low, the performance of high savings and low consumption. Urbanization in the future, as the secondary deepening of the low-income non-household population will accelerate the rise. Related to the gradual improvement of the system will greatly increase their propensity to consume. Also with the changes in age structure will facilitate this part of the population tend to increase income and consumption, and become an important increment in the low-end consumer, home appliances will fully benefit.
third and fourth level contains a large household appliances market consumption potential. Retain the current rural air conditioning is only 12%, and mainly concentrated in the eastern region. We believe that the air conditioning in the rural market has great growth potential. Step by step in the new rural construction, and urbanization, led by new buildings in rural areas increased, making the original open-type housing structure into a closed structure, utilities and other infrastructure to implement continuous improvement, the rural market will increase the demand for home appliances , there are very large space.
exports to resume strong growth in the year 2010 exceeded 40 million units. The impact of the financial crisis began in January this year, has gradually subsided. Year 2010 to maintain strong growth in exports, exports accounted for 46%, compared to the year 2009 significantly increase the proportion of 43%, an increase of 56%. Air conditioning export sales sustained high growth, we believe that rising labor costs, reduced export tax rebates, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and trade friction, and on the negative impact of China's home appliance exports is limited.
future export growth is still worth the wait. Russian high-latitude regions more severe weather, increased demand for the next northern air conditioning will be effective leveraging of total global sales growth. The idea that the future labor costs, reduced export tax rebates, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and trade friction, the export of home appliances in China have suppressed. This inference is only a theoretical inference, with a certain subjective nature, empirical test may not be able to set up export data from a recent point of appliance does not have any slow down the trend. The international competitiveness of China's household electrical appliances will continue to maintain market share will not fall. The competitiveness of home appliances is not only a cost advantage. China's household electrical appliance manufacturing cluster has a more complete product and product support, obvious advantages of scale and a higher level of organization and management, which are internationally competitive with some of these advantages are the short term may not be copied or transferred.
Thus, together, the short-term negative factors such as rising labor costs and has little impact on the appliance. The long view, these problems can become household electrical appliance enterprises to accelerate technological innovation and improve value-added products to China from a Chinese manufacturer to create the transformation. Meanwhile, some low value-added small business, was eliminated in the shuffle, and further optimize the industrial ecology.
monthly fluctuations coexist with the brand differentiation
on sub-monthly data, there is a strong seasonal sales of air conditioners feature 3-July sales accounted for 50% of annual sales. Under the 2008 financial crisis in late 2008 to early 2009, sales in the doldrums, some of the low base caused by the second half of 2009, total sales up to the high growth of air conditioning.
sales from the historical perspective, in August, the air-conditioning sales into the off-season. But in August 2010 under the influence of the high temperatures, air conditioning, strong sales, not short off-season features. After winter, affected by the increase in extreme weather, strong air conditioner sales, driving continued growth in air conditioner sales. October 2010, the air conditioning in 2009, sales of high-base remained under the high growth rate, an increase of more than 50% were. Counting from July 2009, has air conditioning for 18 consecutive months of strong sales.
air conditioning will have a certain future sales growth driving force, at least in early regulation of real estate sales are expected to form on the air pressure has slowed down. Supported by strong demand in the next three years 12% of air-conditioning to maintain an average annual compound growth of -16%.
from the monthly view in the export and domestic sales grew after last year's rapid growth, in June 2010 and July affected by the subsidy policy year on year growth to fall, while shipments in May 2010 to accelerate , overdrafts some consumption, domestic sales growth has declined. August 2010, in the hot weather catalyst, the recent record-high year on year. September 2010, the cooler autumn temperatures, the end of the season, but domestic sales grew more than 30% remain in the growth rate. Small increase in extreme weather year ice, driving sales of heating and air conditioning. After the air in October 2010 an increase of 42% of domestic sales, domestic sales to achieve 37% annual growth. We should also see that the current air-conditioning to maintain our relatively low, large regional differences. With air-conditioning sales enterprise price adjustment in place, the future air conditioning domestic market will remain stable growth of about 15%.
2009 in the second half, with the warming of the external economy, exports gradually recovered, and bad weather, year on year export growth rate remained at 40% level. 2010 full year, in addition to the Spring Festival in February, each month throughout the year remain more than 35% growth in exports in May were maintained after more than 60% monthly growth, the external economic climate warming and extreme increase in exports continued to pull recovery. Air conditioning is expected to export the next three years will remain 5-10% compound growth.
to a different brand of view, air-conditioning industry after years of full competition, the brand concentration is higher. As market competition continues to mature, growing and stable industry structure. The year 2010 the cumulative market share of the brand last year basically flat over previous four combined 66% market share. Gree, the total annual U.S. sales were 26.56 million units and 24.8 million units, the market share of 28% and 26%, duopoly has accounted for half of total sales.
growth from the perspective of the brand, Gree, Midea and industry basically flat growth rate, the annual increase of 43% and 45%. Haier annual sales of 6.38 million units, the market share of less than 7%, the cumulative increase of 45% over the industry average. Chi, Kelon and other second-tier brands is not because of their large sales by the policy impact of stimulation and volatile market rebound, with serious damage early in the pre-crisis low base in 2010, are over-year market growth recovery.
for domestic purposes, from January to December 2010, Griffith sold 18.71 million units, up 27.8%, 36% market share ranking Pa industry first. U.S. sales of 13.65 million units, up 37.3%, 26.6% market share. Haier 4.37 million units sold domestically, up 41% market share of 8.5%.
to export point of view, the United States from January to December 2010, the export sales of 11.15 million units, up 54%, export share of 25.4%, maintaining the industry's first absolute advantage. Gree export 7.85 million units, up 99% of substantial growth, rapid growth, market share increase of 4 points up to 17.9%. Chi high export 2.66 million units, an increase of 39%. Haier exports of 2.01 million units sold, an increase of 53%.
(This article Source: Shanghai Securities News)
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